Log in
Control Panel
|
|
|
|
Notifications
Who is online?
In total there are 5 users online :: 1 Registered, 0 Hidden and 4 Guests
The Last Outlaw
Most users ever online was 156 on Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:22 am
The Last Outlaw
Most users ever online was 156 on Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:22 am
Statistics
We have 32 registered users
The newest registered user is JeffVAU
Our users have posted a total of 4002 messages in 1672 subjects
The newest registered user is JeffVAU
Our users have posted a total of 4002 messages in 1672 subjects
Latest topics
CBOX
How Impeachment Could Flip The Senate
Page 1 of 1 • Share

The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of Bethea's Byte. Rahm Emanuel is a former mayor of Chicago, Democratic congressman from Illinois and White House chief of staff.
From Rahm Emanuel to The Washington Post

When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) initiated an impeachment inquiry into President Trump several months ago, many worried that she was repeating the mistakes Republicans made during their monomaniacal pursuit of President Bill Clinton two decades ago. At that time, the GOP’s fever dream proved an electoral disaster for House Republicans. In November 1998, Democrats did so well that House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) was compelled to resign just days after the midterm elections.
That’s not going to happen again. Last year’s Democratic victories in Kentucky and Louisiana illustrated that pursuing Trump isn’t the political kryptonite for Democrats that persecuting Clinton was for Republicans. That’s probably because even many of Trump’s supporters presume he is guilty of breaking the law. It is rare for an incumbent’s popularity to be in the low to mid-40s this close to reelection. It suggests that the country has grown numb to his Twitter tirades — and that character still matters.
Some will argue that the president is an outlier — that he’s immune to the laws of politics. Whether that proves to be right, there’s one arena in which impeachment is likely to have an outsize impact: in the battle for control of Congress. The House looks to stay in Democratic hands: Already, fear of a Trumplash partly explains why 26 House Republicans have announced they are retiring or seeking another office. Meanwhile, Democrats are said even by some Republicans to be “crushing” House GOP fundraising efforts. If Republicans are too busy defending their seats to run competitively in districts already controlled by Democrats, Pelosi’s double-digit margin in the House is likely to survive.
But if the scandal is working to preserve the Democratic tilt in the House, it could upend things in the Senate, where Republicans hold a three-seat margin. Impeachment will likely decide the fate of a handful of Senate Republicans currently in cycle. For Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Thom Tillis (N.C.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cory Gardner (Colo.) and Martha McSally (Ariz.), a vote to convict is unthinkable: It risks the president’s wrath and a likely primary challenge. That combination would force each senator to embrace an agenda alien to most swing voters.
A vote to acquit, however, will force every senator to own Trump’s emboldened rhetoric of being exonerated. Which means they’ll have to defend Trump when the next embarrassing audio recording hits the airwaves, or when another witness surfaces to speak, or when John Bolton’s book comes out, or when internal memos about the “drug deal” come out via the Freedom of Information Act. Republican senators will become full-time exonerators.
That dilemma is now playing out in real time. Some 63 percent of voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina look unfavorably on the Senate’s decision to date to disallow witnesses and hide documents — yet all five senators mentioned earlier have, so far, voted against transparency. That may partly explain why the five Republican senators are “underwater,” meaning that more constituents view them negatively than positively. And if that snapshot bodes poorly, the trend lines are worse: In the last quarter of 2019, McSally and Collins saw 5- and 4-point drops, respectively, in their “net” approval rating — an indication that a rising share of their constituents view them in a negative light.
For years, I’ve believed that the balance of the Senate almost invariably followed the outcome of a presidential election. This coming year, by contrast, the Trump impeachment may have such inertial power that the old truism of nationalized results during presidential cycles may no longer be valid. If so, the current trial, if you can call it that, will “decouple” the battles for the White House and the world’s “greatest deliberative body.”
If, as expected, the Senate votes to acquit the president, many may cast impeachment as a strategic blunder. But that analysis may be premature. Just as they overshot the mark by impeaching Clinton two decades ago, Republicans have overcorrected today by whitewashing Trump’s clear wrongdoing — at least so far.
If Democrats nominate a candidate who projects calmness, coolness and character in contrast with Trump’s chaos, corruption and constant conflict, we are likely to emerge from the November election in much better shape than many might now anticipate. And our success will be tied explicitly to the vote these senators take giving the president a pass for behavior most Americans now view as illegal.
From Rahm Emanuel to The Washington Post
When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) initiated an impeachment inquiry into President Trump several months ago, many worried that she was repeating the mistakes Republicans made during their monomaniacal pursuit of President Bill Clinton two decades ago. At that time, the GOP’s fever dream proved an electoral disaster for House Republicans. In November 1998, Democrats did so well that House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) was compelled to resign just days after the midterm elections.
That’s not going to happen again. Last year’s Democratic victories in Kentucky and Louisiana illustrated that pursuing Trump isn’t the political kryptonite for Democrats that persecuting Clinton was for Republicans. That’s probably because even many of Trump’s supporters presume he is guilty of breaking the law. It is rare for an incumbent’s popularity to be in the low to mid-40s this close to reelection. It suggests that the country has grown numb to his Twitter tirades — and that character still matters.
Some will argue that the president is an outlier — that he’s immune to the laws of politics. Whether that proves to be right, there’s one arena in which impeachment is likely to have an outsize impact: in the battle for control of Congress. The House looks to stay in Democratic hands: Already, fear of a Trumplash partly explains why 26 House Republicans have announced they are retiring or seeking another office. Meanwhile, Democrats are said even by some Republicans to be “crushing” House GOP fundraising efforts. If Republicans are too busy defending their seats to run competitively in districts already controlled by Democrats, Pelosi’s double-digit margin in the House is likely to survive.
But if the scandal is working to preserve the Democratic tilt in the House, it could upend things in the Senate, where Republicans hold a three-seat margin. Impeachment will likely decide the fate of a handful of Senate Republicans currently in cycle. For Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Thom Tillis (N.C.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cory Gardner (Colo.) and Martha McSally (Ariz.), a vote to convict is unthinkable: It risks the president’s wrath and a likely primary challenge. That combination would force each senator to embrace an agenda alien to most swing voters.
A vote to acquit, however, will force every senator to own Trump’s emboldened rhetoric of being exonerated. Which means they’ll have to defend Trump when the next embarrassing audio recording hits the airwaves, or when another witness surfaces to speak, or when John Bolton’s book comes out, or when internal memos about the “drug deal” come out via the Freedom of Information Act. Republican senators will become full-time exonerators.
That dilemma is now playing out in real time. Some 63 percent of voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina look unfavorably on the Senate’s decision to date to disallow witnesses and hide documents — yet all five senators mentioned earlier have, so far, voted against transparency. That may partly explain why the five Republican senators are “underwater,” meaning that more constituents view them negatively than positively. And if that snapshot bodes poorly, the trend lines are worse: In the last quarter of 2019, McSally and Collins saw 5- and 4-point drops, respectively, in their “net” approval rating — an indication that a rising share of their constituents view them in a negative light.
For years, I’ve believed that the balance of the Senate almost invariably followed the outcome of a presidential election. This coming year, by contrast, the Trump impeachment may have such inertial power that the old truism of nationalized results during presidential cycles may no longer be valid. If so, the current trial, if you can call it that, will “decouple” the battles for the White House and the world’s “greatest deliberative body.”
If, as expected, the Senate votes to acquit the president, many may cast impeachment as a strategic blunder. But that analysis may be premature. Just as they overshot the mark by impeaching Clinton two decades ago, Republicans have overcorrected today by whitewashing Trump’s clear wrongdoing — at least so far.
If Democrats nominate a candidate who projects calmness, coolness and character in contrast with Trump’s chaos, corruption and constant conflict, we are likely to emerge from the November election in much better shape than many might now anticipate. And our success will be tied explicitly to the vote these senators take giving the president a pass for behavior most Americans now view as illegal.
Create an account or log in to leave a reply
You need to be a member in order to leave a reply.
Page 1 of 1
Page 1 of 1
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
» Wife Accused of Stabbing Husband After Finding Photos of Him Having Sex With ‘Another’ Woman — Without Realizing That Was Herself
» DOJ Has Identified 400 Suspects, Charged 135 in Capitol Riot
» FBI Capitol Riot Investigation Shifts Gears
» NBCU’s Peacock Pins WWE Network Exclusive U.S. Streaming Rights
» Suspect Arrested in Indianapolis Shooting That Left 5 People and an Unborn Child Dead
» Free Byte Weekend
» How are you feeling right now?
» Last thing you ate/drank
» A Tale of Two Farewells
» A Tale of Two Farewells
» Trump Plans Farewell ‘Ceremony’ On Morning Of Biden’s Inauguration, McConnell Gives GOP Senators Permission To Find Donald Trump Guilty
» Pence. Kushner. McEnany. Ingraham. Even Giuliani… Here Are All People Trump Now Reportedly Feels Have Betrayed Him
» What are your plans for the day
» A House Majority Votes to Impeach Trump
» Glenn Beck Compares Twitter Bans to the Holocaust: ‘This Is the Digital Ghetto’
» Scathing Lincoln Project Ad Blasts Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley for Capitol Riot: 'This Is Your Coup'
» GOP Ignored Their Own Warnings About Trump (VIDEO)
» ‘Our President Wants Us Here’: The Mob That Stormed The Capitol
» Chaos ERUPTS As The White House Staff FOOLS Trump Over The Mob 'He Was Delighted'
» This Republican Senator Is Apparently Totally Unfamiliar With Donald Trump
» House Democrats Introduce Article of Impeachment Against Trump
» A Response From a Former California Governor
» The U.S. Capitol Attack Has Left An Indelible Mark On Our National Security
» The Day America Realized How Dangerous Donald Trump Is
» Congress Confirms Biden's Win After Pro-Trump Mob's Assault on Capitol
» Calls for Trump to Resign or be Removed Grow After Capitol Hill Chaos
» Lindsay Graham Makes Exasperated Plea To Colleagues To End It and Certify the Vote
» Eric Trump Warns of Primary Challenges For Republicans Who Don't Object to Election Results
» Jacob Blake Shooting: No Charges Against Officer in Kenosha, Wisconsin
» Kinzinger: Republicans Can't With 'Clean Conscience' Object After Hearing Trump Tape
» All 10 Living Former Defense Secretaries Declare Election is Over in Forceful Public Letter
» Head-On Crash Kills 7 Kids, 2 Adults in California
» In Extraordinary Hour-Long Call, Trump Pressures Georgia Secretary of State to Recalculate the Vote in His Favor
» One Dead, Several Injured in Texas Church Shooting
» Cruz, Cadre of Other GOP Senators Vow Not to Certify Biden Win Without Probe of Baseless Voter Fraud Claims
» Second Stimulus Check
» ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ Reviews: What the Critics Are Saying
» Nashville Bomber Told His Neighbor Before Attack: The World is 'Never Going to Forget Me'
» Leading New Texas Rebellion, Louie Gohmert Sues Mike Pence Because VP Lacks Authority to Overturn Joe Biden’s Election Win
» Treasury, White House Face Enormous Pressure To Quickly Disburse Stimulus Aid After Trump’s Delay
» CNN's Jake Tapper And The White House's Kayleigh McEnany Spar After He Says She 'Lies The Way Most People Breathe'
» Good News About the Coronavirus Vaccine Is Becoming Contagious
» Nashville Explosion Appears Intentional, RV Played Warning Message of Bomb
» Trump Calls COVID Relief Bill Unsuitable and Demands Congress Add Bigger Stimulus Payments
» Voice of Jeopardy! Johnny Gilbert Remembers Alex Trebek: 'Part of Me Left When Alex Left'
» A Flashback Changes This Edition of Free Byte
» December Is Shaping Up To Be The COVID Pandemic's Deadliest Month Yet In The U.S.
» Four Dead As Winter Storm Hits Northeast With 3 Feet Of Snow
» George W. Bush Sends Christmas Card With Pointed Message As Trump Contests Election
» Stimulus Checks Part of Looming COVID-19 Relief Deal as Congress Finalizes Negotiations
» Biden Working With Team to Decide When to Get Coronavirus Vaccine
» UK could override parts of Brexit deal
» CNN's Jake Tapper Thanks Trump For 'Exposing' Republicans Who Supported Texas' 'Un-Democratic, Un-American, Mendacious Joke of a Lawsuit'
» Does Donald Trump Really Believe He Lost The Election?
» The Trump Team Throws in the Towel on Proving Voter Fraud
» What was the last movie you saw?
» MLB Umpire Brian O’Nora Reportedly Arrested in Sex Sting Operation
» 17 Republican Attorneys General Back Trump in Far-Fetched Election Lawsuit
» 'If I lost, I'd be a very gracious loser'
» Barr Says He Hasn’t Seen Fraud That Could Affect the Election Outcome
» Kim Jong-Un Is Reportedly Displaying 'Excessive Anger' Over the Economic Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic, Ordering the Execution of Two People
» AstraZeneca Faces Difficult Questions About Its Vaccine After Admitting Mistake
» Trump Has Set a Hidden Trap For Biden. It Could Do Great Damage.
» A Trump 2024 Run Is a Terrible Idea—For Him And For The GOP
» Armenians Return to Nagorno-Karabakh After Cease-Fire
» Georgia and Michigan Deliver Blows to Trump’s Efforts to Undo the Election
» US Announces Further Drawdown of Troops in Afghanistan and Iraq Before Biden Takes Office
» Why Moderna's COVID Vaccine Has a 'Huge Advantage' Over Pfizer's
» U.S. Passes 11 Million Coronavirus Cases as Washington State Orders New Restrictions
» Trump Loses String of Election Results Lawsuits
» Alex Trebek, Quintessential Quizmaster as ‘Jeopardy!’ Host For Three Decades, Dies at 80
» MTV and Nick Cannon Inch Closer to ‘Wild ‘N Out’ Revival
» Trump May Accept Results But Never Concede, Aides Say
» Progressives’ Wish List for Biden Starts With Warren and Sanders
» Fauci Optimistic About COVID-19 Vaccine, Says High-Risk Could Get it in December
» Joe Biden Is Right: It Is Time To Move On
» World Leaders Welcome Biden Win, Seek Reset in U.S. Ties
» George Stephanopoulos Says He Has Only Slept for 14 Hours Since Election Day
» Biden Wins White House, Vowing New Direction For Divided US
» Polls Show Biden gaining ground in Texas, Georgia
» America's New Power Couple: Joe and Mitch
» Trump Hits Election Integrity With Unsupported Complaints
» Judge Rejects Moving Trial of Ex-Officers in Floyd’s Death
» Bernie Sanders’s Election-Night Predictions Were Eerily Correct: ‘He Called It WORD For WORD’
» NO WINNER YET. Key Battleground States Have Votes Yet To Be Counted.
» Jeannie Mai Hospitalized, Forced to Leave 'Dancing With the Stars'
» John Oliver Reminds Voters of All Trump's 'Massive F--- Ups' In Handling The Coronavirus
» Seven Big Things Biden Got Right
» How Are Americans Catching the Virus? Increasingly, ‘They Have No Idea’