Trailing in the Polls and Time Running Out, Trump Looks for One More Comeback

Catherine Lucey and Michael C. Bender of The Wall Street Journal wrote:

WASHINGTON—President Trump is at his lowest point in the polls in months, behind in ad spending and has spent the past week off the campaign trail after a positive COVID-19 diagnosis. Now, with just weeks to go before Election Day, he’s hoping for one more reset.

From inside the White House, Mr. Trump has spent the past week employing unusual strategies to close the gap. He pulled out of the second debate with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden after organizers said it should be held virtually to avoid health issues. He has criticized two of his highest-profile cabinet secretaries, Attorney General Bill Barr and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, for not being tougher on his political rivals.

Campaign aides are hoping they can get their candidate back on the road and back on message, as they try to narrow a gap that they insist is smaller than in the public polls which show him trailing Mr. Biden nationally and in battleground states. But they have just 24 days and one remaining debate to do it.

“Our races have certainly gotten tighter since the presidential debate,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and chief executive of the Republican Main Street Partnership. She expressed confidence that Republicans running in suburban congressional districts could still succeed, but added “everybody talks about all the days [left], but really in a lot of states, people are already voting.”

Mr. Trump, who has been frustrated by his confinement in the White House, is planning to resume in-person events Saturday, nine days since the announcement he tested positive for COVID-19. He is scheduled to host a gathering at the White House Saturday and a rally in Florida Monday. His doctor said in a memo released Thursday that Mr. Trump was ready to resume activities Saturday, but has provided limited details on the president’s condition.

“Will be in Sanford, Florida on Monday for a very BIG RALLY! “ Mr. Trump tweeted Friday.

Campaign advisers said Mr. Trump’s schedule would be guided by his health, but they were eyeing rallies nearly every day in the coming week. They are looking at a trip to Pennsylvania Tuesday, said a person familiar with the planning.

Campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh said the president will still seek to make an economic pitch to voters in the closing days.

“The president is going to have in excess of 20 days on the campaign trail to make the clear case, which Americans already know, that he is the candidate who built the economy to the world’s best once and will do it again,” Mr. Murtaugh said.

The president’s message in recent days has been far from focused, as he gives freewheeling television interviews that touch on possible coronavirus treatments, complaints about top aides, declarations about troop withdrawals, branding Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris a “monster” and calling for the indictment of both Mr. Biden and former President Obama in relation to the investigation into links between Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign and Russian election interference.

Mr. Trump also is looking to strike a coronavirus relief deal before Election Day. Some Republicans hope that gives them a boost, but warn that it could frustrate voters if the White House and Congress can’t reach an agreement.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) said on CNBC Friday that if people are upset and depressed on Election Day, “I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress, that it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”

Even before Mr. Trump announced early on Oct. 2 that he had tested positive for the coronavirus, he was already dealing with the fallout from a Sept. 29 debate performance marked by his aggressiveness and frequent interruptions, and a story in The New York Times which said he paid $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017 and no taxes for many other recent years. Mr. Trump has said the Times report was false but has refused to release his tax returns.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll taken after that first debate showed Mr. Biden widening the gap, leading the president 53% to 39% among registered voters. The survey was taken before news emerged that Mr. Trump had contracted COVID-19.

Internally, campaign advisers said their data showed little movement after the debate. But these aides acknowledged that Mr. Trump’s standing has taken a hit since the announcement last week that he tested positive for coronavirus.

They are quick to point out state polls that show Mr. Biden ahead by about the same margins now as then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was at this point in 2016. (That is true in some battleground states, but in others Mr. Biden’s lead in poll averages is wider than Mrs. Clinton’s was.) They also said that Mr. Trump is overperforming among Latino voters in certain states.

While some aides and allies are growing increasingly anxious, others contend that the president could still dig his way out of this, pointing to his comeback after video surfaced on Oct. 7, 2016 of Mr. Trump speaking to a host of NBC’s Access Hollywood about grabbing women.

“I don’t know that anything could be worse than that situation. He built himself back up after falling there,” said a person close to the campaign.

On Oct. 10, 2016, Mrs. Clinton’s lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average stood at 5.8 points, and reached its high for the month the following week, at 7.1 points. Mr. Biden’s average lead, as of Friday, stood at 9.6 points.

Heading into the final three weeks of the campaign, Democrats hold an $85 million advantage over Republicans on TV advertising reservations, according to data from political ad tracker Kantar/CMAG. Mr. Biden’s campaign and Democratic groups have booked $177 million in TV ad time compared with $92 million for the Trump campaign and GOP groups, the data show.

The states attracting the most spending from both sides are Pennsylvania and Florida, where Democratic super PAC Priorities USA and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s Independence USA PAC are giving Democrats the edge on TV.

But the Biden campaign has also booked about $6 million worth of time in Texas through Election Day and this week increased its spending in Ohio and Iowa, two states where the Trump campaign canceled a week’s worth of TV reservations. Asked about the moves, Mr. Murtaugh said the Trump campaign felt confident the president would carry those states. As of Friday, the Trump campaign also was slated to go up on the air in those states next week through Election Day, the data show.

As the president’s poll numbers falter, Republicans running for re-election around the country are increasingly under pressure, with some distancing themselves from Mr. Trump on multiple issues.

During a debate, Arizona Sen. Martha McSally avoided questions about whether she was proud to support the president. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine opposed the White House push to confirm a Supreme Court justice before Election Day. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that he hadn’t been to the White House in two months due to the Trump administration’s casual approach to the coronavirus.

A Republican consultant working with candidates in battleground states said the past 12 days had been tough for the president and a drag on GOP contenders.

“The president’s numbers have dropped—that’s around the country,” the consultant said. “The dynamic of the race needs to change. I don’t know what the White House needs to do to reset that.”

The coming confirmation hearings for the president’s Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, could refocus attention somewhat, the consultant said, arguing that GOP candidates would benefit from anything that “takes the eye off Trump.”